Considering RAW’s Royal Rumble Routes (Part 1/2)

For Monday Night RAW, 2020 began with an unexpected shift. After weeks of speculation regarding Brock Lesnar’s Royal Rumble foe, the WWE Champion announced that in an unprecedented move, he’ll be participating in the Rumble match itself, entering first too. The direction was immediately polarising but if nothing else, certainly surprising. Personally though, I find it hard to be overly critical. Considering Lesnar’s lengthy history in this role, it’s encouraging to still see him placed in fresh scenarios. The motivation for this decision can be debated but for Lesnar’s longevity, an imaginative approach remains pivotal.

Either way, Lesnar’s presence almost certainly alters RAW’s potential Rumble results. At this point in the WWE calendar though, that’s inevitable, as the shortlist steadily gets shorter. Whether it be the male or female Rumble match, RAW suddenly has a handful of clear routes to WrestleMania. The most likely or interesting options, well that debate will likely prove divisive. Relatively speaking, RAW has had a promising few months, with a sense of direction finally returning to the brand. With a lacklustre Road to WrestleMania though, those positive steps could be swiftly rendered meaningless.

Some crucial decisions await but with Royal Rumble now under three weeks away, it feels fair to consider the possible routes.

Men’s Royal Rumble Match

Rumble Owens Rumble

Though his long-awaited babyface turn was fumbled, Kevin Owens has steadied the ship as of late. In fact, Owens has been RAW’s central babyface since Rollins’ turn, appearing at home as the brand’s leading protagonist. As a promo, Owens unsurprisingly adjusted with ease, only increasing the fans’ investment when having a microphone in his hand. In-ring, the role has revitalised Owens too, allowing his unique flashiness to shine through, embracing the audience’s support rather than pushing against it in the heel role. Moreover, Owens vs. Lesnar is a fresh matchup, only briefly meeting once on a Madison Square Garden live event.

Owens is quite clearly RAW’s top babyface entering 2020, both in momentum and stature. As a result, he feels most likely to leave Royal Rumble with a conflict against Lesnar. On the other hand, he is already embroiled in a rivalry with Rollins that perhaps, could remain their focus until WrestleMania itself. Frankly though, I hope not as currently, this feels like the perfect moment to catapult Owens even further forward.

A Fresh Face

Considering RAW’s recent presentation, this direction feels feasible, even if perhaps idealistic. Whether it be via a Rumble win or simply eliminating Lesnar himself, a rising star can be truly cemented in this very match. It feels bizarre to still use that description for Drew McIntyre but in recent weeks, he’s certainly felt on the rise again. McIntyre has had a frankly bizarre WWE career, with constantly high expectations seldom being met. Since returning to the main roster almost two years ago, McIntyre has consistently impressed in-ring but at times, felt almost too dry to ascend higher than his established position.

However, there’s been a concerted effort to change that as of late. McIntyre has been much more outwardly charismatic, edging towards a babyface run which naturally, positions him for a potential Lesnar clash. For me personally, it still currently feels like a step too far, but creative commitment can make all the difference, especially under the Royal Rumble spotlight. Elsewhere, another former NXT Champion presents an equally exciting opportunity. Following the end of his tag team with Ricochet, Aleister Black has had a unique climb but with WrestleMania season approaching, he could be in the perfect position.

It was a muted summer for Black and at times, a frustrating one too but since being drafted to RAW, he’s found a more consistent presence. In particular, Black has thrived opposite Buddy Murphy, showing some vulnerability in exciting matches that have emphasised his ceiling. Black isn’t alone in his ability to thrills fans in-ring but it’s his overall presentation that makes him an intriguing foe for Lesnar. There’s a certain aura that follows Black to the ring and it feels like a potentially perfect fit opposite Lesnar. Combine that with his physical style and Black is perhaps the most interesting option among RAW’s fresh faces.

The outside pick within those ranks is Black’s former partner though, as Ricochet presents the more traditional foil for Lesnar’s dominance. In his lengthy stint as heel titleholder, Lesnar has been most at home with smaller opponents, natural underdogs that contrast his size and style. Of these three options, Ricochet certainly feels least likely but while his momentum seems stalled, he’s been prominent enough to feel at home as a contender. A WrestleMania contender? Perhaps not but as history has proven, the Royal Rumble can quickly change that.

A Familiar Foe

Though you may want to forget about him, it’s simply necessary to remember Cain Velasquez, especially considering Lesnar’s Rumble entry. By eliminating Lesnar, Velasquez can set up the ‘rubber match’ without winning the 30-man match itself. Then again, perhaps that shouldn’t happen, at all. It’s wrong to be dismissive of Velasquez but it’s feels fair to dismiss him as a potential WrestleMania opponent for Lesnar. Unfortunately, that doesn’t make it any less likely. The first chapter of their WWE rivalry was far from riveting, but it didn’t feel like the conclusion either, for better or worse.

Earlier, it felt fitting to wax lyrical about Owens’ recent showings but another old foe of Lesnar has been standing alongside him for much of the ride. As of late, Samoa Joe has joined Owens in the fight against Rollins and AOP, leaving the commentary desk and returning to the ring. Like Owens, Joe’s babyface turn has embraced the audience’s long-time admiration for him and as a result, it feels important to at least mention him in this group. Lesnar quite visibly enjoyed battling Joe and ‘The Samoan Submission Machine’ was a perfect match for Heyman on the microphone too.  

Though certainly unlikely, Joe’s sheer popularity makes him an interesting option. Few men on RAW enter to his degree of fanfare but Joe isn’t alone, both in stature and history with Lesnar. Over three years ago, Randy Orton and Lesnar shared a memorable SummerSlam affair, ending in quite vivid violence. While not the most inspired choice, Orton is always a safe bet, especially with that prior clash in mind. However, he’s probably not the most fitting option for RAW’s current direction.

Champion vs. Champion

In terms of dominance, Brock Lesnar was on a tier of his own for much of the last decade. However, WWE has established a very different kind of monster over the last six months. Since returning as ‘The Fiend,’ Bray Wyatt has been presented as for lack of a better term, unkillable. Wyatt has endured finishers with almost comical ease and eventually left as the victor, becoming an almost supernatural contrast to Lesnar outside of their shared supremacy. Naturally, that creates an interesting match and with Lesnar entering the Royal Rumble, there’s suddenly a potential route towards that very match.

However, it does feel doubtful that after entering first, Lesnar will indeed be the last man standing but beyond that, there’s an argument that Lesnar vs. The Fiend is one of the most marquee matchups available for this year’s WrestleMania. With a Rumble win, Lesnar can challenge Wyatt but it must be said, this is probably an unnecessary crossover for now.

Conclusion

It feels like a credit to RAW that with Royal Rumble just weeks away, there’s this many potential options for WrestleMania. After limiting RAW’s route to eight names, some choices certainly appear more appealing than others. If RAW’s ongoing love triangle…or now square soon concludes, the shortlist could possibly extend too. For me personally, Owens remains the clear front-runner but with Lesnar entering the Rumble itself, all possibilities feel less straightforward.

Next, I’ll be tackling RAW’s landscape for the Women’s Royal Rumble but until then, I’ll just apologise for making you even ponder that Velasquez option. I’m sorry, reality is sad sometimes.

Analysing SmackDown’s Post-Draft Landscape

Well, it appears that in theory at least, things have been shaken u…never mind, you guys know the deal by now. If not, it seems that you’ve got some catching up to do so I’ll redirect you to the first half of this project: Analysing RAW’s Post-Draft Landscape. Once you’ve battled through that onslaught of thoughts, prepare yourself for the exact same article with different names inserted. Away we go!

We’ll finish this process with Friday Night SmackDown, breaking down the marquee programmes for all three of the brand’s major champions. Headed by Bruce Prichard, SmackDown currently features Brock Lesnar, Bayley and The Revival as its central titleholders. Who are the biggest foes awaiting them though? Well, let’s break that down.

WWE Champion: Brock Lesnar

Potential Programmes:

1. Roman Reigns
2. ‘The Fiend’ Bray Wyatt
3. Daniel Bryan
4. Kofi Kingston
5. Ali

With a ‘rematch’ opposite Cain Velasquez awaiting him, Brock Lesnar remains a trusted choice as WWE enters a pivotal era on FOX. A box-office attraction capable of in-ring thrillers, Lesnar continues to polarise people as a main event champion. For some, he’s the tiresome status quo and for others, he’s the obvious option for this network TV spotlight. Interestingly enough, the above names potentially capture both of those opposing arguments at once.

Among ardent viewers, another programme between Brock Lesnar and Roman Reigns is unlikely to be enticing. However, it’s clearly the strongest endgame available in regards to current star power and stature. Over four years ago, Lesnar and Reigns gelled beautifully in their WrestleMania headliner but since then, the perception has naturally shifted on their meetings. Much of that isn’t due to the actual physicality either but instead, the narratives that surround this particular story. Due to their history, this is a complex scenario but objectively, it remains the marquee matchup within this SmackDown title scene.

In a list featuring ‘The Big Dog’ and three of wrestling’s finest underdogs, Bray Wyatt certainly stands out. That’s his biggest positive in a programme with Lesnar too, providing a unique character contrast that could bring different elements back into the champion’s presentation. Wyatt is the only name that can really provide that potential freshness, a character that could force Lesnar away from the admittedly tried and true playbook we’ve seen in recent years. Best of all, this programme was flirted with in 2016 but eventually avoided, making it even more intriguing for SmackDown now. First though, Wyatt must leave his feud with Rollins unscathed. That’s legitimately pivotal.

Moving on from ‘The Fiend,’ it’s now time to focus on the final three aforementioned protagonists. First is Daniel Bryan, arguably WWE’s finest performer and already, a firmly established legend within the industry’s wider landscape. In fact, you could argue that he should be the first name on this list and in truth, it’d be impossible for me to logically dispute your claim. Bryan and Lesnar have battled only once before, producing an enthralling champion vs. champion affair at last year’s Survivor Series. That outing only increases my interest in a full programme and though Bryan hasn’t been in the title picture since WrestleMania, he’s always only ever just one promo or match away.

The man that dethroned Daniel Bryan is up next, former WWE Champion Kofi Kingston. After six months as titleholder, Kingston was defeated in just seven seconds by Lesnar on SmackDown’s FOX premiere. Fittingly, that result divided much of the audience but if nothing else, it also provided a unique hook for the still available sequel. At its core, Kofi’s ascension was made special by the audience’s organic support of a believable, authentic and likeable personality. Those traits would be more palpable than ever in a rematch with Lesnar, as Kingston looks to redeem himself against ‘The Beast.’

That’s a great tale to tell but it’s not alone on this list either. Residing in the almost outsider option is Ali, a figure that in stature at least, is on the tier below the names above him. With that being said, his immense talent can quickly make up the difference. As I mentioned, there’s a story here as well: a brief link that can either still spark something more or unfortunately, is already lost in history. When Brock Lesnar claimed this year’s Money in the Bank, it was Ali that he dispatched from the top of the ladder, smugly stealing his well-deserved moment in the process.

That’s a great starting point and moreover, this is a perfect stylistic fit too. Simply put, Ali can provide the crash test dummy style that Lesnar historically thrives against. In fact, he may be the perfect example of that archetype, consistently shining as the traditional babyface that bravely fights uphill. The obvious name that Ali removed from this list is Braun Strowman but regrettably, history cancelled out his popularity for me personally. Lesnar vs. Strowman should be a marquee match. It once almost was and still could be but after their last programme, I’m not sure anyone is rushing back to this particular clash.

Outside of that, there really aren’t too many options. SmackDown isn’t without star power and frankly, it’s not low on depth either. The difference here is that in Lesnar, you have a far different centrepiece than RAW has with Rollins. That truth comes with pros and cons but with Lesnar, you simply can’t insert lesser names as easily. Lesnar won’t be having cold title bouts on TV and nor should he so as a result, every foe paired with him will require genuine focus and/or immense fan support. This highlights the creative contrast between Lesnar and Rollins, for better or worse.

SmackDown Women’s Champion: Bayley

Potential Programmes:

1. Sasha Banks
2. Alexa Bliss
3. Carmella
4. Nikki Cross

After reclaiming her SmackDown Women’s Title last week, Bayley stands at the start of a brand new career chapter. Now a fully-fledged villain that’s shed her roots, the former ‘Hugger’ will be the base of which this division is built upon. In-ring, that’s not a concern and isn’t anything new for Bayley either, previously anchoring a still developing NXT group. As a character and personality though, Bayley is currently an unknown quantity on the dark-side. Though an important piece regardless, Bayley’s title reign could well be decided by the quality of her heel promos.

Speaking of such, it’s another villain that sits atop this list: Sasha Banks. Though their NXT battles are legendary, I have to concede that personally, I was very much ready to move on from this particular pairing. However, Bayley’s latest lick of paint brings new possibilities to a potential programme and though this matchup will require some time to develop, it could be the perfect choice for WrestleMania season. I’d be somewhat hesitant to switch Banks back to babyface already but considering the hand dealt, it feels like an unavoidable destination. There’s nothing wrong with that either, especially if handled correctly.

Though perhaps not what everyone had in mind, Alexa Bliss and Nikki Cross were genuinely great additions for SmackDown in this week’s “blockbuster trade.” They immediately filled the female babyface void and will likely provide some personality along the way as well. Bliss is the most obvious option on this list and considering her summer programme with Bayley, there’s a natural narrative to craft also. From a story perspective, Bliss’ allegations towards Bayley are perfect for the champion’s recent character shift but unfortunately, that history comes with some cons. On paper at least, there’s just not a great clamouring to see another version of this programme.

That’s understandable too and as a result, this direction will require real creative focus and attention. Based on their June edition of ‘A Moment of Bliss’ though, they are capable of capturing a very compelling story here. Cross is intertwined in that tale too and though not exactly a fresh matchup, doesn’t suffer from the same critically panned past that Bliss does opposite Bayley. In the same way though, she also doesn’t carry Bliss’ star power or status. Nonetheless, Cross remains a very solid piece of the puzzle and if she remains on this current path, her star should only continue to rise.

Splitting the former Women’s Tag Team Champions on this list is Carmella. The former SmackDown Women’s titleholder has spent much of the last year paired with R-Truth in a comedic double-act but now may once again receive an increased focus. Carmella’s history with Bayley has been recently reiterated on TV and could provide her a natural route back into the title scene. That direction is hard to dismiss also, a seamless fit story-wise and a much needed fresh matchup as well. Circumstance alone makes Carmella a genuine option here but her steady development is certainly encouraging too.

In addition, while Carmella’s personality shined as an antagonist, she actually feels far more suited to the opposite role inside the ropes. As a babyface, Carmella is yet to receive a spotlight such as this and even if only briefly, it’d be neat to see that change against Bayley. Outside of those four names, some less immediate options remain. This week on RAW, Lacey Evans appeared to turn babyface but while her performance continues to improve, it’s far too early to reasonably consider Evans for a list such as this one.

Evans has genuine upside as a babyface but that doesn’t mean it’ll be a smooth transition. Considering her commitment to the villainous quirks of her current character though, it’ll be an interesting adjustment to follow. Elsewhere, Fire and Desire remain works in progress that somewhat surprisingly, stay united. It’s understandable to be optimistic about both Mandy and Sonya but at this juncture, they are still awaiting the angle that’ll set their next paths. Once that arrives, their place in this landscape will become far clearer.

Finally, Dana Brooke’s time on Main Event is complete and now on SmackDown, she could potentially become this division’s dark horse contender. Frankly though, I’ll believe it when I see it, especially considering how quickly she vanished from RAW following Money in the Bank. Either way, this section should highlight that in one fell swoop, this division became relatively deep. There’s options here and creatively, some rather exciting ones too.

SmackDown Tag Team Champions: The Revival

Potential Programmes:

1. New Day
2. Heavy Machinery
3. Lucha House Party
4. Robert Roode & Dolph Ziggler

As I stressed in the RAW half of this analysis, these tag title pictures remain relatively unclear. The Usos and Authors of Pain are yet to land on either brand but even still, SmackDown starts in a much better position than its counterpart. Though much of the dialogue surrounding The Revival is based on their ongoing contract negotiations, Dash and Dawson are undeniably one of wrestling’s finest tag teams and an immaculate centrepiece for any tag division.

Speaking of such, few acts in history have been better tag team centrepieces than the New Day. Whether Kingston is directly involved or not, New Day remain incredibly valuable and are clearly the biggest potential challengers for The Revival. The only issue is a common one across both brands though, the reality that unfortunately, this matchup is far from fresh. Nonetheless, this is the position they find themselves in so frankly, they’ll probably just have to make it work.

Then again, that ‘problem’ can be avoided if they opt for a swift title change and coronate the second team on this list. A jocular, almost throwback tandem, Heavy Machinery have been steadily climbing in popularity since arriving on the main roster. Moreover, they are genuinely capable inside the ropes and could provide a jolt to this relatively stagnant tag title picture. I’d imagine that Otis and Tucker divide ardent viewers but in truth, their stark contrast with The Revival provides an easy story to tell.

The Lucha House Party fit a similar description. They too differ from The Revival as personalities and in-ring, are almost certain to have exciting matches with the current titleholders. Based on their recent outing with The O.C., this trio could indeed be featured more too but at the moment, they feel a few steps away from true title contention. In the grand scheme of things, that obviously doesn’t mean much but in this division, they certainly appear to be a distance away from the two teams above. Even still, I’d argue that their talent alone commands a spot on this list.

If the aforementioned title change route is indeed taken, Robert Roode and Dolph Ziggler’s place in this division will become much clearer. The former RAW Tag Team Champions are already an impressive team, rich in experience and in-ring range. However, in the grand scheme of things, they fill a very similar position to The Revival. There’s nothing wrong with that of course but when one of these teams has the titles, the other will be inevitably limited in their usage. With neither likely candidates for a babyface turn either, that’ll be an interesting scenario to follow.

Other Names of Note:

When discussing potential foes for Lesnar, I only mentioned a handful of names. However, that’s more indicative of the champion’s style as in truth, SmackDown certainly isn’t without talent. That’s highlighted by the Intercontinental Champion: Shinsuke Nakamura. Though far less featured than RAW’s United States titleholder, Nakamura remains a formidable talent that’s been somewhat revitalised by his pairing with Sami Zayn. Considering the surrounding talent though, that title will now require an increased importance with Lesnar as WWE Champion.

After all, it’ll likely be home to most of SmackDown’s stars at one point or another. Historically, that’s how the secondary male title is handled while Lesnar takes the throne. Arguably the biggest name not yet mentioned is The Miz, a genuine star that’ll likely reside in the Intercontinental Title scene often. In truth, he’s capable of even more than that but with Lesnar as WWE Champion, he feels like an unlikely option in that particular picture. Even still, he’s a tremendous asset for SmackDown.

King Corbin remains an interesting case study himself. It’s hard to imagine that on this roster, his spotlight will be equal to the one he received on RAW last year but at this juncture, it’s even harder to be certain of that. To Corbin’s credit, his performance has consistently improved and he’s certainly been in solid form as of late. Where he’ll fit on this roster though, that feels very much in the balance. Shorty Gable’s position appears much more straightforward, continuing in the role that he’s established as Corbin’s most recent rival.

Gable will produce excellent in-ring efforts but is unlikely to be ascending the overall totem pole, instead operating as a valiant, scrappy babyface that usually falls short in the end. As long as he’s wrestling though, Gable will consistently make SmackDown a better show. In a similar vein, Cesaro and Drew Gulak will fill the same kind of role on the opposite side of the card. Though more aggressive and arrogant than valiant or scrappy, Cesaro and Gulak will be relied upon for good matches that elevate those standing opposite them.

Finally, it’s hard to be too optimistic about Luke Harper’s current standing but he’s certainly worth a mention nonetheless. Harper is a unique talent that in flashes, has shown a quite staggering skill-set. Unfortunately, his singles career has lacked creative commitment in WWE thus far but ideally, he’ll at least be featured semi-regularly on SmackDown.

In conclusion, SmackDown has impressive star power and a women’s division with legitimate potential. They also currently have the stronger tag team title picture as well. Many expected the blue brand to leave this draft as clear victors and while that may not necessarily be the case, they certainly have a roster befitting their alleged flagship status.